In recent weeks I have put a pair of scenarios out for the denizens of pmbug.com (highly recommended!) to comment upon. Namely, exploring what kinds of conditions we could expect if things go badly. Let us stipulate (legalese for "let's just accept this as true") that SOME kind of bad ending is coming to us... Which is what I believe. But, do not ask me for trading advice or what company's stock to buy...!
The news on the "Credit Event" on Greek debt (the ISDA declaring that Greece's forcing BIG haircuts on may of their bonds IS reason to say that Greece is in default, so that CDSs will likely have to pay up, MANY details available at zerohedge.com) was the spark to get me to write this piece, as that is news that got little noticed today, but could have great implications.
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EDIT / Sidebar: The ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc.) issued the following FAQs re the Greek Credit Event: http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2012/03/Greek-Sovereign-CDS-Credit-Event-FAQs-03-09.pdf. See also: http://www.ftense.com/2012/02/greece-bailout-do-not-trigger-bomb.html. This is a rapidly developing story, which means this weekend will be another of "one of THOSE kinds of weekends again..."
End Sidebar
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I put out the below two scenarios of how this could all go down, of course there could be an ultimate way this could go down that is somewhere in between. If we were to limit the scenarios to JUST these two, I would say that the first one is more likely (call it 80%) and of course milder, while the second one less likely (20%) but much more devastating. I do not put a timeline on these. It/they could come soon, or much later.
1) "Great Depression v. 2"
Great Depression v. 2 ("GDv2") is my shorthand way of describing a crisis on the order of magnitude of the Depression in the 1930s. 25% unemployment. Crime rates up. No money. Dust Bowl. Poverty goes WAY UP. Bankruptcies and lost capital. Of course there would be many differences between the 1930s and "GDv2". I would expect INFLATION to to be a major factor for example in any GDv2.
GDv2 would claim lots of victims, almost everyone to some degree or other. There would be a small group of very well prepared people (perhaps the evil elites, ready to pounce on cheap values for example) that might absolutely benefit. But, I believe that most people, even the wealthy, would be hurt to varying degrees. "The winners would be those hurt the least."
Relative winners would include those who are (probably) not in debt, those who are diversified (including and especially owning physical gold), and those who have saved up a lot. And anyone not dependent on the "system" for financial aid (no need for a job, or have a job that would be in demand (mechanics, etc.) or otherwise do not need an income stream by working, but have passive but solid income coming in (landlords, etc.). Even relative winners would suffer from the stress of KNOWING family members or friends who would be in real trouble. They might know MANY such people in trouble, too many to help them out even if just a bit.
The ones who are the losers would really suffer. Not only would their income be hurt, but there would be less help available... Some will lose their jobs, others have pay & benefit cuts. Real estate is likely to go down (unless there is high inflation). There will be more desperation visible on the streets as we see homeless FAMILIES... Crime is likely to go up, as people will be more desperate and the municipalities will have fewer cops on the beat. More crime means more victims...
In our own case, my family and I would survive this one OK, barring being shot in robbery or other low probability events.
GDv2 would be very ugly, and this is the milder of the two I discuss.
2) "TEOTWAWKI"
TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It, let's shorten this one to "The End") I will define as being much worse than GDv2. The key difference between The End and GDv2 is the MASSIVE DIE-OFFS that would take place, whether just in this country (an EMP -- ElectroMagnetic Pulse from a nuclear blast just above the atmosphere above our country which then takes down the electric grid, and so on...) or possibly worldwide (nuclear war, BIG solar flare, peak oil / financial collapse).
This is the one that has people worried. That not just the easy life goes away, but that maybe each person's OWN life will end.
The End would feature massive starvation, chaos, plagues, extreme violence and other horrors well explored in "survival' novels (eg, One Second After, Forstchen) as well as blogs (survivalblog.com).
The End would be the end of everything as we know it. No electricity, no heating, no A/C, no flowing water. Criminal gangs and desperate hordes of people ravaging the landscapes like locusts.
Only the well-prepared and those who could put together strong local communities would be likely to just survive!
In our case, we would not survive for long. We cannot produce water or food. We do not live on a farm. I do not know how to repair old machinery. While we could trade for goods OK for a while, it is difficult to see how we (middle-aged) could possibly learn the skills and bear the burdens of a very hard life...
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One "intermediate" case of the above would be the world as foreseen by John Kuntsler, the author of The Long Emergency, what life would be like after Peak Oil has come and hit us hard. Kunstler also conveniently writes a blog (kuntsler.com) in which each week he takes a peak at our plight and points the way down our long dark future. He foresees a near-end to modern air and automobile travel as the price of oil and gasoline race much, much higher. The country would return to a kind of Nineteenth Century / Amish existence. Kuntsler presents a very plausible future...
Other intermediate cases of course are also easy to imagine. A deflation (as in the 1930s) followed by a hyperinflation, yes, that would be very bad, that would financially destroy all but the very nimble (and perhaps the very rich).
A tyrannical government, whether as a product of a SHTF or a cause of it, is always a possibility.
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Anyway you look at it, it is imperative that we all prepare as well as take whatever steps we as a people can do, perhaps the biggest SINGLE factor to stop a train-wreck is to STOP SPENDING SO MUCH MONEY! Whether our own money (leading us into debt) or our government spending... Alas, I do not see nearly enough political will to stop the spending...
Showing posts with label SHTF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SHTF. Show all posts
Friday, March 9, 2012
Monday, May 23, 2011
The End Of The World As We Know It (Or What Happens After the SHTF)!
The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) Updated (see video at bottom)!
I have been interested in this subject since Jimmy Carter. At that time I did not even know that there were millions like me: ready to "head for the hills" when things got really bad…
TEOTWAWKI is a big subject, so I am just going to write on two pieces of the subject. This topic is likely to come up again in the not too far future here on my blog.
Fast or Slow?
A fast TEOTWAWKI is the big ugly one. The grid goes down in an instant. Chaos ensues quickly.
Two of the four fiction books I have read re TEOTWAWKI feature an EMP (electromagnetic pulse produced by exploding a nuclear device in space, but near the atmosphere). The EMPs fry almost all modern electronics, and so produce terrible effects like:
n All modern aircraft flying then immediately crash
n NO electricity at the hospitals, vaccines and diabetic supplies go bad quickly
n All modern vehicles have their electronics fried as well, too many little computers
n Transportation quickly breaks down
n Our cities become like New Orleans after Katrina
n The Golden Horde / MZBs (Mutant Zombie Bikers) head out of the cities, looking for food
n 75% of Americans die before one year passes
n It apparently would take years to rebuild our country
n Mass suffering and hunger
There are, of course, other ways the fast TEOTWAWKI could happen (nuclear war, a worm like Stuxnet takes down the Internet and causes factories, refineries, electric power plants and so on to fail, etc.).
The below book tells the story of what happens in a North Carolina town post-EMP:
One Second After (William Forstchen) now available in paperback. Newt Gingrich himself wrote the introduction! Apparently our military is trying pretty quickly to harden their electronics. But, Newt himself says that the USA is very vulnerable to this kind of an event: the EMP. The book is great! Dire things happen.
There is another book out on the Internet (only) about a TEOTWAWKI after an EMP, but it is hard to find. It is called Lights Out, I do not remember the author’s name. You will really have to look kind of hard for it, but Google is your friend. I spent almost an entire weekend with my eyes glued to the monitor reading the +/- 400 pages. Very bad things happen in that book too! This one takes place in Texas, so that made it even more of a pleasure to read.
But a TEOTWAWKI could happen slowly too. The economy declines as our debts get out of control. Important parts of the economy start to fail over time. The “Decline of the Roman Empire Scenario” if you will. The World Ends, just not right away.
Two more recent books out on a post-TEOTWAWKI:
The Road, (Cormac McCarthy)
Patriots, (John Rawles)
Apparently there is to be a sequel to Mr. Rawles’ book
I have read and enjoyed all four of the above books.
Are You Prepared?
Properly preparing for a TEOTWAWKI is a huge project. First it requires a mindset that is really ready to do what it takes (including costing a lot of money) to get prepared.
The Mormons are all supposed to have a one year supply of food at all times stocked up. How many non-Mormons do this? Very few I would guess. I do not.
Even more important in the short term is water. In a TEOTWAWKI, it is likely that the water utilities would fail as well. Who then has a water well or other handy potable water? How do you clean the water? “They say” that a person needs one gallon of water per DAY.
What would function as money? Sure for a while paper money would be taken by vendors, but the credit cards would not. No power… But, even if paper money is taken, it likely would be only for a short while. So, what would be taken? Gold and silver probably would. Barter too (eg, bourbon and cigarettes).
How prepared is your community? Oh, please.
OK, so let’s say you are solidly prepared regarding the above. What happens when the desperate come knocking on your door? OK, better have guns and ammunition too. More firepower than “they” do.
What else? A Nineteenth Century skill set that could help to repair things (a friend of my brother and mine informed me once that he “was more prepared to live in the 1860s” than anybody he knew, some of you know who I am talking about, yes, he is the guy who fire 2000 rounds from his guns on zero notice without even having to reload…). Doctors and nurses would be in big demand as there would be LOTS of accidents and epidemics. Without heating and air conditioning the Winters and Summers could get rough.
Two blogs that cover this subject, there are many others:
www.survivalblog.com
www.shtfplan.com
Update:
A Youtube video, thanks FOFOA! For some reason you cannot just click this, but you can "copy and paste" this into your browser at the top of your screen to view this very appropriate video. You might want to start the song, let it play "on and off" for a awhile, then back up that little red cursor button all the way back to the beginning of the video for best results.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/_eyFiClAzq8
Another Update! YES! Click on any of the blue coding below!!!
Two of my friends sent along code that might work better re YouTube videos:
<object width="425" height="349"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/
YET another update! If I did this right, see my wife and her sisters singing Italian, great fun!!
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?
Two blogs that cover this subject, there are many others:
www.survivalblog.com
www.shtfplan.com
Update:
A Youtube video, thanks FOFOA! For some reason you cannot just click this, but you can "copy and paste" this into your browser at the top of your screen to view this very appropriate video. You might want to start the song, let it play "on and off" for a awhile, then back up that little red cursor button all the way back to the beginning of the video for best results.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/_eyFiClAzq8
Another Update! YES! Click on any of the blue coding below!!!
Two of my friends sent along code that might work better re YouTube videos:
<object width="425" height="349"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/
It's the End of the World as We Know It</a>
YET another update! If I did this right, see my wife and her sisters singing Italian, great fun!!
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?
(People who know more about this stuff than I do, please chip in some helpful comments, also, how do I get a gold price widget (like kitco's) for my blog?)
Another Update!
I just saw (but could not copy it over to here) a world map (from Google's blog service stats) that I have had viewers from the below countries:
USA
Peru
Canada
Australia
Germany
How cool is that? Thanks for visiting!
Another Update!
I just saw (but could not copy it over to here) a world map (from Google's blog service stats) that I have had viewers from the below countries:
USA
Peru
Canada
Australia
Germany
How cool is that? Thanks for visiting!
*****
I thank you all who read this article. I would thank you even more to comment on it!
Be looking for another article in a few days!
I wish the very best as always to you and yours.
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