I have been interested in that widget ever since I first found it (at 24hgold.com, at the bottom of the home page). It is a very imperfect measure of physical demand vs. paper gold price at the retail level. Yes, I know it tracks Gold and Silver Eagles only, but that is what the widget itself tracks.
I have just started this, so the below results are NOT particularly meaning (except for the majestic 115% premium of ASEs over spot, I have seen it at over 80% but never over 100%) because of the very short time frame.
Note that typically AGEs run some 5.5% - 8.5% over spot. The LARGER numbers here I have often seen when PM prices PLUNGE like they have lately.
As time goes by, this information might become more useful, I am hoping that it will give us clues as to when the physical markets for gold and silver get tight...
I very much would welcome ideas and suggestions!
EDIT:
I lost price data (spot gold and spot silver) when I published this (the farthest right two columns did not come through). I think I will produce this in future posts with a GoogleDoc link, as I know how to do that now.
RE-EDIT:
Published in the cloud, this link includes price data for Au and Ag:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhnHmH-02CQIdG5GRXpkZ3RrZTdaeGdabElJYjVIVXc&hl=en_US#gid=0
eBay / 24hgold.com PM Widget Tracker | |||||
Notes: | |||||
1) All premiums are truncated percentages, high precision not necessary IMO | |||||
2) I have noticed that premiums widen when PM prices go down. | |||||
3) Gold and silver prices are from 24hgold.com. ["formatted out"] | |||||
4) AGE = American Gold Eagle 1 oz, ASE = American Silver Eagle 1 oz. | |||||
Date | AGE | SGE | |||
(dd.mm.yy) | Premium | Premium | Comments | ||
28.12.11 | 13% | 52% | Second day of vicious takedown | ||
29.12.11 | 17% | 74% | at approx. 1:00 AM | ||
29.12.11 | 19% | 66% | at approx. 11:00 AM | ||
29.12.11 | 16% | 115% | as of 9:00 PM, widget shows eBay/24h offer |
Interesting how the Masters of the Universe can schwack paper all they want, and the real physical market simply adjusts delta with premium raises, increased shipping costs, etc.
ReplyDeleteExcellent project Robert. Hope it provides some insight into the physical market as 2012 plays out.
ReplyDelete