Rxxxxxxx, I am sending this response to the whole crew...
Here's my "working assessment" (the thinking I do re preparation). I do not base these thoughts on any particular methodology, just my best thinking on these matters.
I would guess there is about a 20% chance of a SHTF, in which our country suffers a Great Depression v. 2 (or worse), more or less. Great Depression v. 2 at 20% is a rather high number, and the financial stakes are so high that everyone should own PMs and have at least a rudimentary "Plan B". We would be OK with "just this", we have no debt and metal piled up...
If there is a 20% chance of the "bad shit happening", I would then go on to guess (although I am OUT of the prediction business, for good reason!) a 5% chance of TEOTWAWKI, think "The Road", "One Second After", etc. 50% of the population dying because the grid goes down (the worst threat that is fairly reasonably possible IMO). Really, really bad. We are NOT ready for this.
So, 15% chance of something bad, 5% chance of something even worse. Yes, I would roughly guess alternative intermediate scenarios, at intermediate (5% - 20%) probabilities.
So, whom do I know who is actually doing real stuff about this? Well, I am stocking up on PMs & ammo (for my two guns) and some rudimentary food & water and related. I also have a rudimentary "Plan B" (Peru, we already have enough to eke out a living there even if we could bring nothing with us, some of you know more than others). On the other hand, check out these three guys who are rather well-prepared compared to me:
1) "AA" lives in rural NC, has a huge gun collection and a fair amount (at least 100 acres) of good farmland, some under production, some of that by sharecroppers as well as woodland too. He also can fire at least 2000 rounds without even having to RELOAD! He has a wood stove to heat his house in the winter. My favorite quotation of his: "Hell, we're more ready to live in the 1800s than anyone else I know!" Married, one adult child living with them last I heard,
2) "BB" ("virtual friend") lives in rural Virginia, on a place with at least two wells. He is a marksman, has a machine shop, has PMs and has extensive solar power to run a lot of his household needs, including charging his *electric car*. He's ready for almost everything as well, neither he nor "AA" is going anywhere... Single.
3) "CC" has PMs, a .338 Lapua (more badass than the .50 Barrett), a place in the northeast US hills and is actively getting ready. His wife is at least kind-of on board. He is EXTREMELY aware of the fragility of our financial plight, and keeps an even more active eye on the financial system and commentators on it than I do! He is looking at foreign exfiltration as well. Married, adult children.
All three of the above are also very suspicious of our .gov friends... All three are pretty well integrated into their locales (apparently friendly neighbors, people they have known a long time, family around, etc.), which WE really are NOT.
The rest of you are roughly where I am at. Some preparations and/or some kind of "Plan B", but not really enough to make ME feel that I am ready for them to "bring it on".
A new development from the "Southern Front". I may be going to PERU in DDDDDDD to take care of business (as my wife is going to visit our daughter and see *famous performer* with her...). The trip would be about a "long weekend" in duration, short! If any of you are interested in coordinating a trip to Peru, please let me know. I will have exact dates very soon for anyone interested.
Also, it looks probable that I will be joining my brother and a crew from Smalltown, USA in sportfishing in Costa Rica in xxxx - yyyy 2014 (just a few short months from now). Anyone interested in going (yes, those of you could either opt to fish or not (save some money if you do NOT fish), as well as maybe going down early to check the country out as a place to go...), please let me know in due course.
Have a great weekend my friends!
R A Mix