Outgoing Email Re Preparation

I have a small group of people that I stay in touch with re leaving the country in case of "TEOTWAWKI" and similar.  I got a "doom porn" email from one of them, the below is my answer by email back to our whole group.  Edited to preserve anonymity.

Rxxxxxxx, I am sending this response to the whole crew...

Here's my "working assessment" (the thinking I do re preparation).  I do not base these thoughts on any particular methodology, just my best thinking on these matters.

I would guess there is about a 20% chance of a SHTF, in which our country suffers a Great Depression v. 2 (or worse), more or less.  Great Depression v. 2 at 20% is a rather high number, and the financial stakes are so high that everyone should own PMs and have at least a rudimentary "Plan B".  We would be OK with "just this", we have no debt and metal piled up...

If there is a 20% chance of the "bad shit happening", I would then go on to guess (although I am OUT of the prediction business, for good reason!) a 5% chance of TEOTWAWKI, think "The Road", "One Second After", etc.  50% of the population dying because the grid goes down (the worst threat that is fairly reasonably possible IMO).  Really, really bad.  We are NOT ready for this.

So, 15% chance of something bad, 5% chance of something even worse.  Yes, I would roughly guess alternative intermediate scenarios, at intermediate (5% - 20%) probabilities.

So, whom do I know who is actually doing real stuff about this?  Well, I am stocking up on PMs & ammo (for my two guns) and some rudimentary food & water and related.  I also have a rudimentary "Plan B" (Peru, we already have enough to eke out a living there even if we could bring nothing with us, some of you know more than others).  On the other hand, check out these three guys who are rather well-prepared compared to me:

1)  "AA" lives in rural NC, has a huge gun collection and a fair amount (at least 100 acres) of good farmland, some under production, some of that by sharecroppers as well as woodland too.  He also can fire at least 2000 rounds without even having to RELOAD!  He has a wood stove to heat his house in the winter.  My favorite quotation of his: "Hell, we're more ready to live in the 1800s than anyone else I know!"  Married, one adult child living with them last I heard,

2)  "BB" ("virtual friend") lives in rural Virginia, on a place with at least two wells.  He is a marksman, has a machine shop, has PMs and has extensive solar power to run a lot of his household needs, including charging his *electric car*.  He's ready for almost everything as well, neither he nor "AA" is going anywhere... Single.

3)  "CC" has PMs, a .338 Lapua (more badass than the .50 Barrett), a place in the northeast US hills and is actively getting ready.  His wife is at least kind-of on board.  He is EXTREMELY aware of the fragility of our financial plight, and keeps an even more active eye on the financial system and commentators on it than I do!  He is looking at foreign exfiltration as well.  Married, adult children.

All three of the above are also very suspicious of our .gov friends...  All three are pretty well integrated into their locales (apparently friendly neighbors, people they have known a long time, family around, etc.), which WE really are NOT.

The rest of you are roughly where I am at.  Some preparations and/or some kind of "Plan B", but not really enough to make ME feel that I am ready for them to "bring it on".

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A new development from the "Southern Front".  I may be going to PERU in DDDDDDD to take care of business (as my wife is going to visit our daughter and see *famous performer* with her...).  The trip would be about a "long weekend" in duration, short!  If any of you are interested in coordinating a trip to Peru, please let me know.  I will have exact dates very soon for anyone interested.

Also, it looks probable that I will be joining my brother and a crew from Smalltown, USA in sportfishing in Costa Rica in xxxx - yyyy 2014 (just a few short months from now).  Anyone interested in going (yes, those of you could either opt to fish or not (save some money if you do NOT fish), as well as maybe going down early to check the country out as a place to go...), please let me know in due course.

Have a great weekend my friends!

R A Mix

Gun Show And Movie Review

Later on I will read and review Barron's (they sure are asking for it by saying the Bull is so tough re the cannonball bouncing off it...), but for now I write up my fun little day yesterday at the local gun show and the movie I saw afterwards.

My wife gave me a "Hall Pass' to go off to a local gun show.  There are about three that cycle through here, but this one is the largest, so it is the only one I ever go to anymore.  I needed to buy ammo, more magazines and an ammo can (just stocking, eating my own dog food).

So, I picked up 300 rounds of AK ammo (7.62 * 39) in an ammo can as well as 150 rounds of 9 mm Luger for my Beretta.  And magazines for each.  I also picked up (at long last) a Katadyn water filter, so your congenial blogger is making progress on the whole preparations front...

While at the show, I saw (first time) a .338 Lapua (Barrett brand).  Wow!  What a lovely beast that gun is!  $6000...  After touching (caressing?) it, giving me that electric-tingly feeling like when I held that one kilo gold bar that a local coin dealer once had, Zzztt!  Zzztt!  After that, they had to send over a special team (Serv-Pro, like it never even happened...) to clean up all the drool I put on the floor.  That so dehydrated me that I had to go buy a bottle of water...

And I have begun educating myself on my "next gun".  Which will be a .308 deer rifle.  I had considered a .30-06, but the guy I know who knows guns the best (local gun store manager) told me that a .30-06 is way more power than you "need", that 90% of deer rifles are .308s.  And the recoil is less, a real issue for me.

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Since I had been given that Hall Pass by my wife, I pushed for more!  I was then given permission to go see the new movie: "The Expendables Part 2".  It is the sequel to other one, that came out about a year ago.  The first one had Stallone and a group of middle-aged, over the hill movie tough guys, all tricked out with very nice weapons...

Anyway, Part 2 features a couple of other of these older tough guys (it would not be right for me to reveal which ones) in cameo and minor roles.

The movie is pretty much non-stop good clean violent fun, so if you like that kind of movie, you will enjoy this one too.

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So, I had the chance yesterday to get all those macho-man hormones all worked out of me.  Life is tranquil now...  I even have a "make up" Tai Chi class later this afternoon (to make up one where our instructor did come one time).  What more can I say?  Life is good, live it up!

Art Books, FOFOA and Guns!

Three small items merit a blog article!

My brother and part of his family were just in town visiting us.  We took them to a touristy part of town, and while there I visited a specialty bookstore (Taschen), all their books are printed by the German piblisher Taschen as are all essentially art-related.  I had visited once before (months ago), but was not able to see their book on Symbols, as they had closed when I had finished eating...

THIS time though, we all went inside...  Quite a place...  I found the book (The Book of Symbols), edited by Ami Ronnberg.  It is almost 800 pages of almost incredible archetypal images.  And only $40.00.

"An opium den of a bookstore"

L A Weekly


I need some balance for my normally analytical / numerical mindset!  The book will probably even help improve my blog...  Visit them:

www.taschen.com

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FOFOA has a new piece up at his blog.

He essentially further builds his case that the era of the US$ supremacy is over.  He studies the international monetary system starting right after WW I, when the Europeans created a "gold-exchange standard", which worked more-or-less OK until 1971 (when Nixon said No Mas! to foreigners wanting gold for their dollars). And afterwards the US$ STILL reigned supreme, as exporters (as a group) had to allow us trade deficits for them to be able to export more to the US than they imported (which was their desire).

That all started to change (for the worse) in 2005, when the effects of US .gov consumption starts heavily weighting the balance towards doomsday...  Uh, no, the end will not be pretty for some...

READ all about it, and see the fun video at the end:

fofoa.blogspot.com

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As I mentioned at the top of this piece, my brother was in town, with his wife and 16-year old son in tow.  Most of their time here was spent on doing the usual touristy stuff in my city, but I offered the two guys to join me at the range to shoot my guns.  My nephew has been over-exposed to women most of his life, and I figured that he would like that (and the fact that he follows military and geopolitical topics, he was the one who showed that there was such a thing on cable TV called "The Military Channel", your ever-clueless author never knew).

Those of you who have followed my blog for a while know that I like guns, but that I am no expert and certainly do not own an armory worth bragging about.  So, off to the indoor range (much closer) where we gents had our fun (with my semi-auto AK-47 and my 9 mm Beretta).  They had not shot those weapons before, and so actually had a new experience, fun!  Of course my nephew kept the "Mutant Zombie" target that he shot a magazine (thx Jay!) from each weapon at.  I told him to bring it to school to show his friends...

When we went to pay, I asked the Operations Manager (a patient man, bravo and + 1 to him) how to put the AK back together again after field-stripping it.  For whatever reason, I had had trouble not being able to re-assemble a gun specially-made for teenage morons...  So, he showed me EXACTLY how to do that (I had been having trouble placing the "piston" in there correctly).  We all conversed about guns in general after that, especially about the .50 caliber BMGs he had sold.  It is a very heavy gun (45 lbs), and whenever someone wanted to see it, it was heavy and difficult for him (or any of his employees) to take the beast down off its wires (how it was displayed).  But, one day a customer just took the thing with one hand and played with it like it was a plastic picnic knife...  Turns out he was a WWF wrestler!

So there!  That's how the past few days have been for me!

Massimo And I Go To The Range!

The other day my friend Massimo and I went to the range to do a little recreational shooting.  This range is outdoors and offers shooting distances up to 100 yards.  The indoor range we have visited only allows up to 25 yards, which is not really adequate for rifle shooting marksmanship.

I asked Massimo to bring along his .30-06, which is the most powerful of the easy to find rifles (it is more than adequate for deer hunting).  The .30-06 is adequate for almost anything found in North America except bears, mountain lions (pumas) and perhaps alligators.  His .30-06 is made by Savage and costs around $450 - $500 plus scope, etc.  It is a bolt action with no magazine.  Massimo's gun has a scope on it that would have been about 6 x.  He also brought along his Sig Sauer 5.56 mm semi-auto.

The below picture shows Massimo shooting his Sig Sauer (Massimo told me it was his favorite gun).  He was a soldier with some kind of advanced training, and he is a very good shot.  He was shooting his at 50 yards and 75 yards and adjusting his scope along the way.  To the left you can see most of Massimo's .30-06 (with a tripod and scope mounted on top).

I then told Massimo that I would like to have him take a similar picture of me.  He told me we were not allowed to take pictures there at the range, that I did not know.  Oh well, I will not be running for political office anyway...

I fired 10 rounds of Massimo's .30-06 at a target placed 100 yards away.  The .30-06 is a powerful gun with a hard recoil!  Even with the rubber recoil pad on the back of the stock it kicks like a mule...  Firing 10 rounds was plenty.  Previous to our visit, I had only fired a .30-06 THREE times in my whole life.  So I was not real familiar with the gun, nor had I ever tried to carefully aim one with a scope, etc.  Of the 10 rounds fired, 6 actually hit the target paper, but only three of those made it into the outer circle (which would roughly be hitting near the center of mass of a man).  None of those three made it into the "black" circle.  So, I am clearly a beginner...

The below picture shows me and Massimo's .30-06 (in the foreground).  I was loading my AK-47 with a magazine (the AK-47 is a semi-automatic similar to Massimo's Sig Sauer, pull the trigger, a bullet comes out, pull it again, a bullet comes out -- that means you can easily fire (not well aimed, but it will fire) about one round per second) when he took the below picture of me.  His gun blocks the view of mine, as he had to take the picture covertly...

I wound up shooting only one "clip" (30 rounds) as my shoulder was getting sore, it had taken a good pounding from the .30-06.  The recoil from the AK-47 is MUCH lighter than a .30-06.

To give you all an idea of the difference between the power of the .30-06, I took the below picture of the three rounds we shot that day.  The two on the right are roughly the size of a man's little finger.  The one in the middle is my 7.62 x 39 (AK-47 ammo), the one on the right is  his 5.52 mm cartridge.  The one on the left is the .30-06...

TEOTWAWKI -- Guns and Ammo Edition, Part Two!

Way back in May I wrote a flawed piece on firearms you might want to consider owning if TSHTF.

Well the below link will take you to a NICE piece written on this subject.  Someone who knows more than I do.  Take a look!

http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f6/all-purpose-firearm-collection-132/

TEOTWAWKI -- Guns and Ammo Edition

I am hoping to do occasional articles on TEOTWAWKI (and guns & ammo).  I am not going to deal with the legalities of firearms here, you either know what the legalities are where you live, or you can find out easily enough.  Today is "Firearms for TEOTWAWKI 101".

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Modern Survival Theory (MST, actually I just made-up both the term and acronym, but maybe there IS MST already out there) tells us that being armed will help you survive and live better through a TEOTWAWKI ("The End Of The World As We Know It"), you know, what happens after the SHTF...

Preparing for a TEOTWAWKI was my first real article (look in the May archives) here at my blog.  Preparing for that is a long, hard and expensive process.  And everyone will around you will think that you are completely crazy.  References are also given to books and blogs that are about MST at my other article.

But, how will you defend your gold and your family when the Golden Horde / MZBs (Mutant Zombie Bikers) come to your home?  You will have to be armed.

I have read in various places the below guidelines re firearms for the prepared:

-- a semi-auto "assault rifle" (AK-47, AR-15)
-- a handgun, preferably a high caliber one
-- a Mossberg 12 gauge shotgun
-- a .22 LR rifle for hunting squirrels, rabbits, etc.
-- a 30-06 ("thirty odd six")  deer rifle

With 2000 rounds for EACH of the first two.  I have not seen guidelines for the other three, but would imagine that they would be around 500 - 1000 rounds each.

I myself own an AK-47 clone and a 9mm Beretta.  I have about 700 rounds for each.  So I would get a failing grade in "MST 101".  I have read sneers about the 9mm pistol, a women's gun...  But, you have to be comfortable with your gun.  You want to practice, and if the gun is too big, you might just skip doing that...

You also must be proficient in their use.  I have read, and can confirm that just going to the range or to the country to fire them once every four to six months just is not good enough.  Marksmanship is perishable as they say.

And maintenance, you have to know how to clean your weapons typically by "field stripping" them and have and use cleaning supplies.

Let us explore the above five weapons:

(1)  The semi-auto carbine / "assault rifle" will fire one bullet each as fast as you can keep pulling the trigger.  You might need the firepower if a crowd is coming at you.  My thinking is that both the AK-47 clones and the AR-15 are roughly equal over all.  I bought the AK because it can be seriously abused, hardly ever cleaned and still fire (not get jammed).  If I am in the rain, or behind a ridge-line or a sand dune, I want a bullet to come out when I pull the trigger.  A friend of mine as an AR-15.  He chose it because it is American, it also has less recoil ("kick") than the AK and is less noisy.  But when we went out to shoot our weapons a few weeks ago, his jammed up...  Effective range for the AK is claimed to be up to 300 meters, but unless you practice a lot, don't expect to hit much over, say, even 150 meters unless you are just hosing down whatever you are shooting at.  This is the gun even the police are scared of, the gun they keep trying to ban.  Better "git while the gittin's good".

(2)  "The pistol is what you use to get to your rifle."  A genuine quotation, but I do not know who said that.  A pistol is handy if "they" are close.  Once again, point and shoot.  Gun fans argue endlessly about what pistol calibers and brands are "best".  It all depends.  I chose the 9mm because it does not kick too much and the round will drop 'em fairly well, depending...  9mm is about the minimum caliber called for by most MST.  Lots of people say to just go with the old 1912 .45 caliber.  In Iraq, I read, US Army officers are discarding their government issue 9mm Berettas and instead go out with a .45.  Imagine that, a 99 year-old design is what the officers themselves want...  The .45 was designed to drop a man for SURE (when we fought in the Philippines against insurgents after the Spanish-American War).

(3)  A shotgun can be real handy for home defense.  The "hall cleaner", in which all you have to do is shoot the thing down the hallway and whatever is there will get hit by the buckshot most often used in shotguns.  ((And buckshot does not go through walls, endangering other people in another room or outside your place.  R Mix edit: this is WRONG.  Some of my readers pointed this out to me, buckshot and birdshot CAN go through walls and kill people.))  Mr. Mossberg seems to be the brand I hear and read about the most.  ZH's own Chumbawamba has mentioned his Mossberg 12 gauge, I of course would not know if he actually has, but it SOUNDS like he has one!

(4)  A .22 LR is the rifle most boys who wind up with guns usually fire for the first time.  I fired one when I was 10 years old!  It almost doesn't have ANY recoil and so is suitable for having your children join in when MZBs come-a-calling.  You can also hunt small animals like squirrels ("Tree Rats" as they call them in parts of Texas and the South) and rabbits.  If you shoot at a squirrel with a bigger rifle, you are just going to have all the meat splattered all over the tree...

(5)  A deer rifle with a good scope is also recommended in MST.  Someone (like a deer hunter) who is GOOD can hit a person at 400 meters, about a quarter of a mile.  That's a long way.  Drop a few of the of the apparent leadership of that band of MZBs coming your way from that far away will likely encourage them to find a softer target.  Again, among the aficionados of high powered rifles there is much debate about the "best" way to go.  I myself shared thoughts with two ZH-ers who seemed to know what they were talking about when I was considering buying a .338 Lapua, kind of a beast of a gun.  A gun like that (in well trained hands) can drop someone a MILE away!  After I thought it over, I realized that I would never go shoot the thing!  And it is expensive...  (check the cool .338 Lapua out at www.onlylongrange.com)  A 30-06 ("thirty odd ((R Mix edit: "thirty aught six")) is more than enough however for almost anybody.  There are many smaller and less powerful cartridges out there.  Again personal preference is the way to go.  I myself have shot a 30-06, and it is a pretty serious rifle, LOUD and with a BIG recoil.

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I hope that the readers of this article have enjoyed and learned something about firearms from this article.

If this, or other TEOTWAWKI articles, get(s) good reviews, there will be more.

Perhaps even a Guest Post!  As I do not know much more than the above...