| Year | Sales |
| 1999 | $442,634.70 |
| 2000 | $545,369.41 |
| 2001 | $413,146.06 |
| 2002 | $390,902.78 |
| 2003 | $396,484.10 |
| 2004 | $422,405.76 |
| 2005 | $495,858.49 |
| 2006 | $629,388.58 |
| 2007 | $780,246.53 |
| 2008 | $894,069.17 |
| 2009 | $863,963.03 |
| 2010 | $905,912.08 |
| 2011 | $926,366.52 |
| 2012 | $1,126,911.04 |
| 2013 | $1,184,041.76 |
Our sales growth of about 5% is in line with Peru's estimated 2013 growth rate (emphasis mine):
Nov 8 (Reuters) - Peru's central bank said on Friday it was lowering its 2013 economic growth forecast for the second time in less than 2 months to around 5.2 or 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent, in line with estimates by analysts and banks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/08/peru-economy-gdp-idUSL2N0IT1IJ20131108
Most of our sales come from the Lima metro area (some 8,000,000 of Peru's nearly 30,000,000 people):
2011: 61.6%
2012: 59.4%
2013: 61.2%
Lima sales vs. the provinces are stable. Actually, I would like to see our sales to the provinces go up, we give very little credit (collecting money is difficult from the provinces) so our cash comes right in before delivery, and the provinces have most of Peru's population.
***
We had two interesting developments last year (2013). The first was seeing our Chinese double-row bearings and "hub & bearing assemblies" grow strongly. This caused a big change in the types of bearings that we sold. Below is a table showing our historical sales by rank (No. 1 is our long-term best selling type) vs. 2013 results:
Hub & Bearing Assemblies are now our biggest selling type of bearing. The 6000 series (includes our number one item, the 02-6007-RS) is mostly sales of our pieces for Daewoo Tico, a car now finally in decline in Peru. Note that we have about 27 types of bearings that we have sold in recent years. The above are "the ones that matter".
Because I like numbers, I did a "Correlation Coefficient" on the sales figures (not ranking numbers above) just to see how 2013 compared to our historical numbers. The C.C. was 0.64, lower than I would have guessed. The Hub & Bearing Assemblies are now very important for us, a big change...
We have four main suppliers. We sell very little now beyond those four brands. KBC bearings (Korea) have our internal coding prefix of "02". Iljin (Korea) prefix is "11", MBS (Japan) is "13" and "Delfu" (China) is "50".
The same four bearings above were our "Top Four" in both 2012 and 2013.
I should note that there are various bearings similar to the 02-6007-RS that will fit and run well with the Tico, these other pieces (not listed) were DOWN in sales in 2013 vs. 2012. The Daewoo Ticos are finally starting to die off in Peru, they are still there (for the most part), but on the same decline curve we saw decades ago re the VW Beetle, once ubiquitous as well.
There were no significant changes in Ameru policies nor brands that we buy (other than phasing out our old ones, and that takes time).
***
Once I had the final sales figures in, I went ahead and ran a "Factor Analysis" routine using my S-Plus 6.1 stats program. This time I had more and "better" data (more time for our relatively new Delfu pieces to make it into the bestsellers).
Factor Analysis is fairly complicated and subjectivity DOES enter into choosing the variables (I excluded some "orphans" that are old brands we are heavily discounting for example) and interpreting the results. Interpretation of the results is an art, and an art that I have not mastered yet. FWIW, here are the top 20 factors with a comment on each. I looked at our top 225 selling bearings (to our to 260 customers), the purpose of Factor Analysis is to "reduce" the number of similar variables (kind of grouping similar selling pieces) to look for patterns...
Nov 8 (Reuters) - Peru's central bank said on Friday it was lowering its 2013 economic growth forecast for the second time in less than 2 months to around 5.2 or 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent, in line with estimates by analysts and banks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/08/peru-economy-gdp-idUSL2N0IT1IJ20131108
Most of our sales come from the Lima metro area (some 8,000,000 of Peru's nearly 30,000,000 people):
2011: 61.6%
2012: 59.4%
2013: 61.2%
Lima sales vs. the provinces are stable. Actually, I would like to see our sales to the provinces go up, we give very little credit (collecting money is difficult from the provinces) so our cash comes right in before delivery, and the provinces have most of Peru's population.
***
We had two interesting developments last year (2013). The first was seeing our Chinese double-row bearings and "hub & bearing assemblies" grow strongly. This caused a big change in the types of bearings that we sold. Below is a table showing our historical sales by rank (No. 1 is our long-term best selling type) vs. 2013 results:
| Rank | Rank | ||
| Type | 1999:2013 | 2013 | Comment |
| b61 | 1 | 3 | 6000 series ball brgs, mostly for Tico |
| bdr | 2 | 2 | Double row ball brgs, "Gen 1" |
| tmet | 3 | 5 | Tapered roller brgs, metric sizes |
| boc | 4 | 1 | "Hub & Bearing Assemblies" |
| b62 | 5 | 4 | 6200 series ball brgs |
| tpre | 6 | 6 | Tapered roller brgs, "prefix" |
| tpul | 7 | 9 | Tapered roller brgs, inch sizes |
| b63 | 8 | 11 | 6300 series ball brgs |
| tsp | 9 | 12 | Tapered roller brgs, special types |
| club | 10 | 14 | Clutch bearings |
| ot | 11 | 10 | Other types |
| bbo | 12 | 8 | Ball brgs, other series |
| tdr | 13 | 7 | Double row tapered brgs, "Gen 1" |
| cnb | 14 | 13 | cylindrical and needle brgs |
Hub & Bearing Assemblies are now our biggest selling type of bearing. The 6000 series (includes our number one item, the 02-6007-RS) is mostly sales of our pieces for Daewoo Tico, a car now finally in decline in Peru. Note that we have about 27 types of bearings that we have sold in recent years. The above are "the ones that matter".
Because I like numbers, I did a "Correlation Coefficient" on the sales figures (not ranking numbers above) just to see how 2013 compared to our historical numbers. The C.C. was 0.64, lower than I would have guessed. The Hub & Bearing Assemblies are now very important for us, a big change...
We have four main suppliers. We sell very little now beyond those four brands. KBC bearings (Korea) have our internal coding prefix of "02". Iljin (Korea) prefix is "11", MBS (Japan) is "13" and "Delfu" (China) is "50".
| Qty | Qty | ||||
| Codigo | Total Qty | Sales | 2012 | 2013 | |
| 02-6007-RS | 75518 | $270,197.64 | 35402 | 40116 | |
| 11-IJ-212001 | 1743 | $ 95,918.66 | 850 | 893 | |
| 13-38BWD22 | 5971 | $ 83,296.13 | 2669 | 3302 | |
| 50-E90A/40202 | 1832 | $ 71,098.63 | 500 | 1332 |
The same four bearings above were our "Top Four" in both 2012 and 2013.
I should note that there are various bearings similar to the 02-6007-RS that will fit and run well with the Tico, these other pieces (not listed) were DOWN in sales in 2013 vs. 2012. The Daewoo Ticos are finally starting to die off in Peru, they are still there (for the most part), but on the same decline curve we saw decades ago re the VW Beetle, once ubiquitous as well.
There were no significant changes in Ameru policies nor brands that we buy (other than phasing out our old ones, and that takes time).
***
Once I had the final sales figures in, I went ahead and ran a "Factor Analysis" routine using my S-Plus 6.1 stats program. This time I had more and "better" data (more time for our relatively new Delfu pieces to make it into the bestsellers).
Factor Analysis is fairly complicated and subjectivity DOES enter into choosing the variables (I excluded some "orphans" that are old brands we are heavily discounting for example) and interpreting the results. Interpretation of the results is an art, and an art that I have not mastered yet. FWIW, here are the top 20 factors with a comment on each. I looked at our top 225 selling bearings (to our to 260 customers), the purpose of Factor Analysis is to "reduce" the number of similar variables (kind of grouping similar selling pieces) to look for patterns...
| Factor No. | Eigenvalue | Comment |
| 1 | 16.5 | Hard to find Korean and Japanese |
| 2 | 15.8 | Unusual Korean, some Chinese assys. |
| 3 | 14.4 | Cheaper alternatives to Japanese |
| 4 | 13.4 | Daewoo Tico (more important in the past) |
| 5 | 10.9 | MBS double row, some Delfu |
| 6 | 9.8 | Mostly Iljin double row & assys |
| 7 | 8.9 | More odd KBC, light loadings on Delfu |
| 8 | 7.9 | Delfu hub & bearing assys |
| 9 | 6.6 | MBS! |
| 10 | 6.0 | ZWZ big tapered roller bearings |
| 11 | 5.6 | KBC tapereds, but not for wheels |
| 12 | 5.2 | Our NEW flange pieces from Delfu |
| 13 | 5.1 | Certain wheel bearings, low Delfu loadings |
| 14 | 4.9 | MBS and a few others for American trucks |
| 15 | 3.1 | Delfu pieces substituting for NTN (Japan) |
| 16 | 3 | Light to moderate loadings on KBC and Delfu |
| 17 | 2.9 | Daewoo Matiz (some pieces differ re Tico) |
| 18 | 2.4 | Some KBC and MBS, low loadings |
| 19 | 2.4 | Light loadings on Delfu and "orphans" |
| 20 | 2.2 | KBC M12649/10 & KM48548 (pair for van) |
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