Wednesday, January 22, 2014

2013 Ameru Results

Ameru Trading del Peru S.A. had a good year in 2013, our sales were up some 5% over 2012.  2012 was a BIG year for us in that we were up some 21% over the year before.

Year Sales
1999 $442,634.70
2000 $545,369.41
2001 $413,146.06
2002 $390,902.78
2003 $396,484.10
2004 $422,405.76
2005 $495,858.49
2006 $629,388.58
2007 $780,246.53
2008 $894,069.17
2009 $863,963.03
2010 $905,912.08
2011 $926,366.52
2012 $1,126,911.04
2013 $1,184,041.76

Our sales growth of about 5% is in line with Peru's estimated 2013 growth rate (emphasis mine):

Nov 8 (Reuters) - Peru's central bank said on Friday it was lowering its 2013 economic growth forecast for the second time in less than 2 months to around 5.2 or 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent, in line with estimates by analysts and banks.

Most of our sales come from the Lima metro area (some 8,000,000 of Peru's nearly 30,000,000 people):

2011:  61.6%
2012:  59.4%
2013:  61.2%

Lima sales vs. the provinces are stable.  Actually, I would like to see our sales to the provinces go up, we give very little credit (collecting money is difficult from the provinces) so our cash comes right in before delivery, and the provinces have most of Peru's population.


We had two interesting developments last year (2013).  The first was seeing our Chinese double-row bearings and "hub & bearing assemblies" grow strongly.  This caused a big change in the types of bearings that we sold.  Below is a table showing our historical sales by rank (No. 1 is our long-term best selling type) vs. 2013 results:

    Rank Rank
Type 1999:2013 2013 Comment
b61      1    3 6000 series ball brgs, mostly for Tico
bdr      2    2 Double row ball brgs, "Gen 1"
tmet      3    5 Tapered roller brgs, metric sizes
boc      4    1 "Hub & Bearing Assemblies"
b62      5    4 6200 series ball brgs
tpre      6    6 Tapered roller brgs, "prefix"
tpul      7    9 Tapered roller brgs, inch sizes
b63      8  11 6300 series ball brgs
tsp      9  12 Tapered roller brgs, special types
club    10  14 Clutch bearings
ot    11  10 Other types
bbo    12      8 Ball brgs, other series
tdr    13    7 Double row tapered brgs, "Gen 1"
cnb    14  13 cylindrical and needle brgs

Hub & Bearing Assemblies are now our biggest selling type of bearing.    The 6000 series (includes our number one item, the 02-6007-RS) is mostly sales of our pieces for Daewoo Tico, a car now finally in decline in Peru.  Note that we have about 27 types of bearings that we have sold in recent years.  The above are "the ones that matter".

Because I like numbers, I did a "Correlation Coefficient" on the sales figures (not ranking numbers above) just to see how 2013 compared to our historical numbers.  The C.C. was 0.64, lower than I would have guessed.  The Hub & Bearing Assemblies are now very important for us, a big change...

We have four main suppliers.  We sell very little now beyond those four brands.  KBC bearings (Korea) have our internal coding prefix of "02".  Iljin (Korea) prefix is "11", MBS (Japan) is "13" and "Delfu" (China) is "50".
  Qty   Qty
Codigo Total Qty        Sales  2012  2013
02-6007-RS        75518 $270,197.64 35402 40116
11-IJ-212001        1743 $  95,918.66     850     893
13-38BWD22          5971 $  83,296.13   2669   3302
50-E90A/40202       1832 $  71,098.63     500   1332

The same four bearings above were our "Top Four" in both 2012 and 2013.

I should note that there are various bearings similar to the 02-6007-RS that will fit and run well with the Tico, these other pieces (not listed) were DOWN in sales in 2013 vs. 2012.  The Daewoo Ticos are finally starting to die off in Peru, they are still there (for the most part), but on the same decline curve we saw decades ago re the VW Beetle, once ubiquitous as well.

There were no significant changes in Ameru policies nor brands that we buy (other than phasing out our old ones, and that takes time).


Once I had the final sales figures in, I went ahead and ran a "Factor Analysis" routine using my S-Plus 6.1 stats program.  This time I had more and "better" data (more time for our relatively new Delfu pieces to make it into the bestsellers).

Factor Analysis is fairly complicated and subjectivity DOES enter into choosing the variables (I excluded some "orphans" that are old brands we are heavily discounting for example) and interpreting the results.  Interpretation of the results is an art, and an art that I have not mastered yet.  FWIW, here are the top 20 factors with a comment on each.  I looked at our top 225 selling bearings (to our to 260 customers), the purpose of Factor Analysis is to "reduce" the number of similar variables (kind of grouping similar selling pieces) to look for patterns...

   Factor No.    Eigenvalue       Comment
1 16.5       Hard to find Korean and Japanese
2 15.8       Unusual Korean, some Chinese assys.
3 14.4       Cheaper alternatives to Japanese
4 13.4       Daewoo Tico (more important in the past)
5 10.9       MBS double row, some Delfu
6 9.8       Mostly Iljin double row & assys
7 8.9       More odd KBC, light loadings on Delfu
8 7.9       Delfu hub & bearing assys
9 6.6       MBS!
10 6.0       ZWZ big tapered roller bearings
11 5.6       KBC tapereds, but not for wheels
12 5.2       Our NEW flange pieces from Delfu
13 5.1       Certain wheel bearings, low Delfu loadings
14 4.9       MBS and a few others for American trucks
15 3.1       Delfu pieces substituting for NTN (Japan)
16 3       Light to moderate loadings on KBC and Delfu
17 2.9       Daewoo Matiz (some pieces differ re Tico)
18 2.4       Some KBC and MBS, low loadings
19 2.4       Light loadings on Delfu and "orphans"
20 2.2       KBC M12649/10 & KM48548 (pair for van)

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.